Introducing a scenario of hope changes the future.
Scenario Planning
Mind of the fox
One future: hedgehog
Many futures: fox
Flag watching
Religion flag
Religious wars between Saudi and Iran
Red flag
Russia
China
North Korea
Grey flag
Ageing population
Japan
UK
China
Cloudy flag
Anti-establishment sentiment because of rising inequality in society
Green flag
Ecological concerns
Pandemic flag
Much to do about
Camels straw
The world was in a fragile state before the pandemic hit
China’s growth slowing down
Easy money policy with low interest rates which led to massive governmental and consumer debt.
Economy breaks the camels back
Length of economic recovery is important
Watch the statistics
GDP
Inflation
Level of employment
Not a “V” but a “U” curve
Spain again
Second wave of outbreak?
Much uncertainty about virus
Uncertainty about fatality rate
Uncertainty about infection rate
Uncertainty about cure/vaccine
Tightrope
A balance between lives and livelihood
A balance between lives and economy
Walk the tightrope until covid-19 has a vaccine or goes away
South African scenario playing out
“May the fox be with you.” – Clem Sunter
Is there any way to get away from “the rich get richer” scenario?
WW2 did wreck the wealthy 50’s 60’s 70’s was a time of global growth for all.
It is possible after the pandemic is over when we move to a global inclusive economy.
The world of work has changed. The power does not lie in big government or organisations. Adapt to small businesses as the way of the future. Small businesses are going to transform the South African economy.
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